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--It's
seems that all you see and hear from news reporters and
politicians these days is talk about the Stock Market --
particularly -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
This magic number is presented as the ultimate guage of the
U.S. economy: It goes up, and we're all doing good; it goes
down, and the sky is falling...
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Well, I'm sorry to report, but nothing could be further from
the truth...
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The DJIA was a creation of the Wall Street Journal
back in the late 1800s as a stock performance tally of the
(then) U.S. industrial manufacturing econmony. Believe it or
not, it only represents 30 companies -- most of which are
not true 'industrials,' since the U.S. econmony is no longer
led by the manufacturing industry, rather by consumer
spending (you and your credit cards).
A little more
history...
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The 'Dow' didn't reach 1000 until the 1970s; and it took
until 1995 for it to reach 5,000.
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When computers and online 'day-trading' took over in the
late 1990s, the Stock Market became more like a public
casino.
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In a few short years, the Dow tripled, with a 'correction'
when the so-called 'dot com' bubble burst in 2000 and after
the events of 9/11.
--
These days, spikes up and down are more the result of
media-influenced, speculative hunches, 'short-selling,'
and/or mob mentality, than soundly researched investments
based on management, trends, profits and performance.
--
Over the past ten years, minus the highs and lows, the Stock
Market has basically remained flat (around 10,000). Meaning,
if you invested in the late 1990s, (on average) you would
have made no money -- in fact, when you adjust for
inflation, you would have lost money betting on the Dow.
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Though the mainstream media constantly posts the DJIA on the
news; and makes a big deal over a triple digit gain or loss,
in reality, it's all relative to the total average and
volume of shares traded. For example: if the market
lost 100 points when it was at 5,000, that would be a two
(2) percent loss; but when it loses 100 points at 10,000,
it's only a one (1) percent loss. If the volume (or number
of people buying or selling is low), it's even less
significant. The reporters don't seem to get this; and
instead, they mislead the public into believing that things
are tragically worse or better, when most times it's just
another day of 'trading' -- business as usual on Wall
Street. Oh, and by the way, the DJIA should not rise above
9,000 in 2009 -- if it does, it'll be another bubble,
destined to repeat the cycle of irrational
exuberance to bail
out again.
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So why then is there all this fuss in the news media and
Congress about the financial markets? Simple, it's a
smoke-screen to get the taxpayers to cover the gambling
losses of the Stock Market players; and to propagate the lie
that the 21st Century market will perform like the 20th
Century market. When in fact, those days are gone forever --
internet trading put an end to that.
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So, despite all the talk about how Wall Street directly
effects 'Main Street,' it's simply not true. The problem
with the U.S. economy is the insatiable greed of a small
group of wealthy individuals who are constantly being handed
this country's tax dollars by the politicians in Washington.
Meanwhile consumers have been sqeezed so tightly, that they
have to resort to using credit cards and loans to pay their
bills.
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The only way to fix the problem is to allow the markets to
adjust themselves; which would lower prices on food and
housing, and relieve the consumers of the inflationary
prices that are choking them. This means that some Wall
Street business will fail, and their stock holders will lose
money -- which is the way casinos work.
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For the rest of us, it's time to live within our means and
save money. I, for one, hope that interest rates actually go
up, so I can put money in the bank for future needs and
retirement. Anyone remember the good old days of
compounding interest?
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In conclusion, if you want to be free of the chains of Wall
Street and the government, follow this simple rule: If
you can't afford it, don't buy it!
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